Electricity consumption analysis of small settlements based on linear multiplicative forecast models

Abstract

Electricity consumption analysis of small settlements based on linear multiplicative forecast models

Shlyk Y.K. , Khamitov R.N., Popov E.I., Kovalev V.Z., Arhipova O.V., Bush S.V., Kopyrin V.A., Evstropov S.O.

Incoming article date: 26.05.2025

The paper examines the causes of the decline in the quality of electrical energy in small settlements. A linear multiplicative model for forecasting electrical loads has been developed based on a time series of electricity consumption in one of the small settlements. A posteriori verification of the multiplicative model has been performed, and the efficiency of the developed model for medium-term forecasting tasks has been demonstrated.

Keywords: electricity consumption, small settlement, linear regression model, multiplicative model, forecasting electrical loads, quality of electrical energy