Intelligent support for adaptive construction of project trajectory

Abstract

Intelligent support for adaptive construction of project trajectory

Lomazov A.V., Lomazov V.A., Klimova N.A., Ponomarenko S.V., Semenyakin A.I.

Incoming article date: 09.12.2023

The article is devoted to the problems of managing the implementation of multi-scenario, multi-stage projects under conditions of uncertainty. The proposed approach is based on representing the project model in the form of a scenario network. The developed fuzzy linguistic model of a project stage is a set of linguistic variables corresponding to the stage indicators and external factors influencing the subsequent implementation of the project. The decisive rules for choosing the arc of transition to the next stage are constructed in the form of fuzzy products, the left parts of which are fuzzy statements regarding the preference of possible options. The constructed decision support procedure is based on the use of the Mamdani fuzzy inference algorithm, which has high interpretability. The proposed approach allows for multi-scenario planning and adaptability of management of the implementation of multi-stage projects.

Keywords: multi-scenario multi-stage projects, adaptive project management, scenario network, decision support, linguistic variable, fuzzy inference