On the development and implementation of the basic model of information support for decision-making in the organizational systems of information security units of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia
Abstract
On the development and implementation of the basic model of information support for decision-making in the organizational systems of information security units of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia
Incoming article date: 17.09.2025The article presents a basic model for information support of decision-making designed to enhance the efficiency and resilience of organizational systems within the information security units of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM). The model constitutes an integrated, multi-level system based on the interaction of five interrelated mathematical models: data collection and preprocessing, automated classification, situation forecasting and analysis, decision option generation, and knowledge management. To enhance the model’s functionality and adaptability under conditions of uncertainty, the following formulas have been introduced: assessment of data processing system workload; automatic calibration of weighting coefficients based on forecast error minimization; calculation of information source credibility index; weighted event evaluation accounting for source credibility; decision explainability using the SHAP method; and knowledge utility metrics together with criteria for knowledge archiving. These formulas ensure objectivity, transparency, and robustness of management processes, enabling rapid response to cyber threats, minimizing the impact of human factors, and maintaining high-quality managerial decision-making.
Keywords: information support, decision-making, organizational system, basic model, explainability of decisions, knowledge management