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The index of latent conflict potential student RSBU (according to 2014)


The index of latent conflict potential student RSBU (according to 2014)

Rozin M.D., Mochtchenko I.N., Bugayan I.F.

Incoming article date: 25.06.2016

This paper is the final in monitoring and modeling of socio-political attitudes of students of the University, made on the basis of a survey conducted in mid-2014. The index of overall conflict potential was constructed by using the previously obtained indicators of affective perception of political orders (local and Central) and parameter of general political activity. For this purpose, a psycho-semantic model developed on the basis of the concept of typicality, in terms of catastrophe theory. The index of overall conflict potential is modeled by a random variable. Its distribution function was determined by Monte Carlo simulation using agent - oriented simulation package AnyLogic. The analysis and simulation showed in average relatively low level of conflict 0,46 (straight-line scale from 0 to +1). While 54% of respondents characterized the conflict potential is below average (0.4 and below). The high value of this parameter (0,8-0,9) was observed in one third of respondents. This part of the study audience is the group of risk regarding possible development of the protests.

Keywords: the students, Rostov State Building University, cognitive component, emotional perception, conflicts, political order, matrix, psycho-semantic model, distribution function, Monte-Carlo, agent - oriented package