In this paper, we investigate the possibility of applying the theory of Monty Hall's paradox in tasks that require the need for an optimal choice of a strategy for developing the innovative potential of an enterprise. The article provides recommendations for taking into account and constructive use of the effects that affect the involved experts, in particular, the Condorcet principle and paradox. The paper explores the limits of applicability of the Monty Hall paradox theory. Its applicability is determined, together with considerations about the profitability of changing the initial choice in problems with the so-called "random intelligence".
Keywords: decision support systems, mathematical modeling, expert evaluation, Monty Hall's paradox, project management, collective assessment, Condorcet's paradox, enterprise management, assessment of enterprise characteristics
In this paper, we investigate the possibility of applying the theory of Monty Hall's paradox in tasks that require the need for an optimal choice of a strategy for developing the innovative potential of an enterprise. The article provides recommendations for taking into account and constructive use of the effects that affect the involved experts, in particular, the Condorcet principle and paradox. The paper explores the limits of applicability of the Monty Hall paradox theory. Its applicability is determined, together with considerations about the profitability of changing the initial choice in problems with the so-called "random intelligence".
Keywords: decision support systems, mathematical modeling, expert evaluation, Monty Hall's paradox, project management, collective assessment, Condorcet's paradox, enterprise management, assessment of enterprise characteristics, innovative potential of an enterpris
The paper considers a mathematical model that evaluates the probability of having resources at construction sites in the coming periods of time. The model is based on Markov random processes of death and reproduction. A qualitative analysis of the availability of resources for a period from 1 to 7 time periods was carried out and recommendations were given for effective inventory management at construction sites.
Keywords: construction, resources, management, reserves, mathematical modeling, probability, event flows, Markov random processes, death and reproduction processes