The article considers issues related to making management decisions when ensuring safety in emergency situations. It reflects the features of making management decisions in emergency situations, when achieving a guaranteed level of safety is not always possible. The control loop is presented and the connections between the elements of the first and second stages are analyzed. It is shown that uncertainty in making management decisions arises due to a lack of information about the control object or is caused by unprofessional actions of the decision maker. It is proposed to create and use in practice a digital twin of safety in an emergency situation to eliminate uncertainties in making management decisions. Decomposition of the task into subtasks allows for the process of collecting and analyzing aggregate information about the control object to eliminate uncertainties and minimize risks in the development, adoption and implementation of management decisions in an emergency situation when ensuring safety.

Keywords: control model, control loop, uncertainty, risk, digital twin, decomposition, emergency safety

The article considers the solution of the problem of making managerial decisions when performing special aviation operations in emergency situations caused by landscape fires. In order to improve management decision-making, the optimal use of meteorological information by decision makers is considered. The probability of performing special aviation work is used as a criterion for choosing the optimal solution. The objective function is represented by the number of formulations of weather forecast phases, the probabilities of weather forecast formulations, and the probability of performing special aviation operations during the corresponding weather phase. The sensitivity of the mathematical model of the control problem is analyzed for various input parameters, and the characteristic dependence of the values of the objective function on the number of elementary periods is presented. The results obtained are proposed to be used in the planning and organization of aviation flights when performing special aviation operations in emergency situations during the elimination of landscape fires.

Keywords: management, meteorological information, objective function, dynamic programming, special aviation operations, aircraft