The article considers the assessment of the suitability of solar radiation data from ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis for forecasting problems in the northern territories. The experimental site of the Mukhrino station (Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug), equipped with an autonomous power supply system, was chosen as the object of analysis. A statistical analysis of the annual array of global horizontal insolation data obtained using the PVGIS platform has been carried out. Seasonal and diurnal features of changes in insolation are considered, distribution profiles are constructed, and emissions are estimated using the interquartile range method. It is established that the data are characterized by high variability and the presence of a large number of zero values due to polar nights and weather conditions. The identified features must be taken into account when building short-term forecasting models. The conclusion is made about the acceptable quality of ERA5 data for use in forecasting energy generation and consumption in heating systems.

Keywords: ERA5, solar radiation, horizontal insolation, the Far North, statistical analysis, forecasting, emissions analysis, renewable energy sources, energy supply to remote areas, time series, intelligent generation management

The paper examines the causes of the decline in the quality of electrical energy in small settlements. A linear multiplicative model for forecasting electrical loads has been developed based on a time series of electricity consumption in one of the small settlements. A posteriori verification of the multiplicative model has been performed, and the efficiency of the developed model for medium-term forecasting tasks has been demonstrated.

Keywords: electricity consumption, small settlement, linear regression model, multiplicative model, forecasting electrical loads, quality of electrical energy

The article discusses a methodology for predicting global horizontal radiation for the day ahead, based on the concept of characteristic days – typical daily profiles of global horizontal insolation. The method is aimed at use in the absence of operational meteorological information and is intended as an alternative (backup) method of short-term forecasting in autonomous energy systems. As a test case, data from the Murino station (Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug), obtained from the PVGIS service based on ERA5 reanalysis, was used. The average and median characteristic days for each month are constructed and the accuracy of forecasts using the RMSE, MAE, MdAE and R2 metrics is compared. It is shown that median profiles provide more stable results in conditions of increased weather variability. The method can be used for approximate planning of photovoltaic installations in remote and northern regions with limited access to meteorological data.

Keywords: solar radiation, global horizontal insolation, ERA5, statistical forecasting methods, forecasting in energy systems, forecasting horizon, forecasting for the day ahead, methods for constructing characteristic days, average and median profiles